Almost 4 months ago now, I wrote an article detailing what us as Wolves fans could expect from newly appointed manager César Peixoto as Rob Edwards departed from Molineux. The main thing promised was a monumental change in style of play at the club that would see us swap plucky underdog counter-attacking football for a much more front-footed approach with a high press and an increased emphasis on possession.
Now, 4 months later, I intend to review my deep dive on the Portuguese manager and see whether the style of play we have seen in front of our eyes has lived up to the great expectations of his Gil Vicente side from last season. Spoiler alert – he’s doing better than people think.
Has Anything Changed in his Style of Play?
Looking back at my original article, the picture of how Peixoto’s side would play has held up well, with only a couple of areas where the data tells a different story.
Strong Attack and Defence? The idea that we would score a lot of goals has been fulfilled. We are averaging 2.1 goals per 90, third in the league, although our xG of 1.87 per 90 ranks fifth, so we are slightly outperforming the quality of chances we create. Defensively, I suggested we would concede fairly little, and this also matches. We concede 1.4 goals per 90, eighth in the league, but our xG conceded of 0.94 per 90 is the best in the division. That gap suggests the underlying defensive numbers are stronger than the scoreline implies, and we may have been a little unlucky at times such as the number of screamers we’ve conceded.
Possession and Control? I described PeixotoBallÔ as neither possession heavy nor full-on counterattacking, and this has also remained consistent. Our average possession of 53.4% ranks seventh, which is likely down to being a dominant side in the division. The xG difference backs this up. At +6.5 xG we rank third, which shows we are consistently the better team in most games overall this season.
Long Balls and Cross Heavy? This has been semi-accurate. We average 22.0 accurate long balls per 90 (11th) and 5.1 accurate crosses per 90 (10th). Both sit in the middle of the table rather than near the top, and the slight deviation is again likely due to being a more dominant side, with less need to play direct.
Dominant at Set Pieces? This is where the biggest difference lies. I expected us to be dominant at attacking set pieces, but that does not match at all. We create 0.33 set piece xG per 90, ranking 10th, and score just 0.14 set piece goals per 90, which is 18th. Set pieces account for only 17.6% of our xG per 90, so they are not a major source of chances. Defensively, my suggestion that we would be fairly poor at defending them matches. We concede 0.4 set piece xG per 90 (eighth) and 0.14 set piece goals per 90 (also eighth), with 42.6% of the xG we concede coming from set pieces, a considerable share of what opponents create against us.
Pressing Often? The eye test says we press often, but I suspected the data would not fully reflect that, and this sort of matches. We win possession in the final third just 2.0 times per 90, which is 22nd in the league, yet our PPDA (Passes per Defensive Action) of 10.9 per 90 ranks sixth. Together these suggest less of a high press and more of a general press, where we squeeze the opposition across the pitch rather than winning the ball high up.
Has Anything Changed with Player Winners + Losers?
The player predictions have been more mixed. Three of my four calls have broadly played out, while one has gone the other way.
Winner: Raul Jimenez
What I said: A physical target forward who can win aerial balls, link play with wingers and attack crosses, making him well suited to Peixoto’s system.
Verdict: This matches. We have not yet seen the best out of him from the eye test, but his underlying data so far does meet the requirements above. The foundations are there, and it feels like more is still to come.
Winner: Rodrigo Gomes
What I said: A direct, dribbling winger who can run at full-backs and should thrive in Peixoto’s 4-2-3-1 after struggling to find his ideal role.
Verdict: This matches. He has been one of our best players so far this season and has cemented himself as my first-choice winger on both sides. He looks to have found the role he was missing.
Loser: Tommy Doyle
What I said: A possession-oriented midfielder better suited to slower football who doesn’t naturally fit either role in Peixoto’s double pivot.
Verdict: This does not match at all. The tactical change to more of a 4-3-3, with him as an understudy to Fer Lopez, has helped him come alive and become a great asset to the squad. My original reasoning assumed the double pivot would remain, so this is a good example of how a change in shape can transform a player’s fit in a squad.
Loser: Adam Armstrong
What I said: He lacks the aerial and hold-up qualities required of Peixoto’s lone striker and doesn’t offer the winger profile needed to adapt elsewhere.
Verdict: This matches, and I feel it was the most spot-on suggestion I made. He has looked a shell of himself in this division compared with previous years and doesn’t really work in this system at all in my opinion.
Conclusion
Overall, my original article has held up well. The core of how Peixoto’s side would play has largely been justified by the data: we score plenty, concede little by underlying numbers, and sit comfortably on the positive side of the xG difference without being either possession heavy or purely counter-attacking. The main misses came at set pieces, where we have been far less dominant going forward than I expected, and in how the pressing shows up in the numbers, which points to a general press rather than a high one.
The player calls were more mixed, but still largely accurate. Jimenez and Gomes are both on course to be winners, with Gomes already one of our best performers, while Armstrong has struggled just as I feared. The one clear miss was Doyle, and that came down to a change in shape rather than a flaw in the original reasoning. Moving to more of a 4-3-3 gave him a role that suits him.
